Sunday, November 2, 2008

Are Elections Like Sports?

If they are, McCain is a sure winner. As a New York "Football" Giant fan, one event stood out the week before the Super Bowl. When Giant Plexico Burress guaranteed a win, Patriot QB Tom Brady was asked for his response. Giant fans understood Burress' guarantee as part dig, part pep talk and part challenge. It was not meant to be a Broadway Joe prediction for the ages.

Brady, trying to make light of it, nevertheless mocked the prediction. However, he did not dismiss the predicted loss, but instead dismissed Burress' prediction of how few points they would score. I said to my fellow Giant fans, "they are over confident". I got the same reaction during a Phil Jackson interview prior to the Celtics Lakers NBA Championship. The Laker Coach too seemed over confident, even when compared to his normal high confidence level. I believed they were clues they could be and would be beaten.

The Giants and Celtics won. The Obama supporters and campaign really believe it is over and they may be right. But they have arrogance worse than either Brady or Jackson. But are elections like sports?

As DJ Drummond has shown in his blog Wizbang: DJ Drummond Archives , there has been much copycat experimentation happening inside the polling firms. New models dependent on unprecedented voter makeup are dominant. Gallup, in particular, may have had a model breakdown comparable to 1948. Still, there are so many polls, unless I see some that at least potentially support his contention, it is hard to fully take serious.

Well, 2 do. The Mason Dixon State Polls and the November 2 TIPP national poll. TIPP gives Obama a 2 point lead nationally with 9 undecided. TIPP has him at 46.7. More importantly, the internals match results Mason Dixon is finding at the state level. TIPP has McCain tied at 44 in the Midwest and ahead by 5 in the South. These are where the battleground states are.

Even the RCP numbers are moving McCain's way, with Obama's electoral count down to 278. McCain is actually ahead in many of the "in play" states, according to Mason Dixon. He is ahead in MO, OH, IN, NC, GA, AZ, MT, and ND. Mason Dixon has McCain behind by 2 in FL (4 undecided), behind by 3 in VA (9 undecided), and behind by 4 in PA (10 undecided).

There are other states declared for Obama by RCP that Mason Dixon has polled. McCain is behind by 5 in CO (7 undecided) and behind by 4 in Nevada (10 undecided). The most recent poll in NM (not Mason Dixon) has McCain down by 5 (15 undecided). Even MN, a clear Obama state, is only plus 8 for Obama (with a large 12 undecided )

Dick Morris and Karl Rove have made the point that it is important for Obama to exceed the 49% number in the polls if he wants to avoid a very close day Tuesday. There is not one state in the Mason Dixon Poll where Obama exceeds 49%. Even if TIPP and Mason Dixon are more legitimate than the other polls (they do agree with each other), McCain is still behind. But he is not nearly behind enough for Obama to be planning the post game victory party. If one wants to take Morris and Rove literally, then McCain is actually ahead.

Drummond argues that the pollsters have bought the Obama claim we will have an unprecedented transitional style turnout. But early turnout voting statistics do not support that claim. Rather, we have demographic and party turnout comparable to historical norms. A lot has to happen for the improbable upset. But that is what happens when improbable upsets occur. I also do not think I am cherry picking the Mason Dixon poll as that is the best of the state polling firms and the only one which polls so many states.

Are elections like sports? Sarah Palin guaranteed a PA victory in Joe Namath's home town of Beaver Falls. This was a Namath style prediction, meant to be a prediction for the ages. Hmm. The co-captain point guard made a critical foul shot with a sprained foot and 5 seconds left in the Alaska State Championship Basketball game in 1982. I bet she doesn't make too many of those predictions.

My answer is elections are like sports, and even more so when the pollsters have become participants in the game.

No comments: