Natural Born Losers

I still believe this race is closer than the RCP polls would have it. For Gallup to be accurate, for example, unprecedented voter shifts would have to be occurring. The only empirical evidence we have is pre-election day turnout (until after the election itself) and they do not demonstrate the "new world" assumptions exist. Again, that may happen on election day, but have not yet.

I cannot help but default to my "Are Elections the Same as Sports?" way of thinking. I hear Palin and McCain speak. They have that "we know something you don't know" look. Palin keeps tossing out her "in your face" sports challenges. Like yesterday, telling Tina Fey she better not put away her Sarah Palin costume, because she is going to need it for the next 4 years. This proves nothing of course. But it is the Democrats who seem to fear that doom may visit upon them again. The NY Times helpfully reminds us that Obama supporters are nervous.They, you know, have twice had the election stolen from them. So a third time is always possible. Aren't these the musings of natural born losers?

In my little anecdotal corner of small town America, there is no chance in Hades that the O man will get a free ride. Personally, I had NEVER heard of early voting. Shows you what I know. Apparently, there has been a little secret group of in the know people who can vote in 30 seconds or less. The problem this year is apparently the wait time was 45 minutes to vote early in many areas. I live in a rural part of America that has the same voting demographics as the rest of small town America. Generally 2-1 Republican. And they are swamping the early voting polls. Maybe we have bought the myth too and just believe there will be large election day turnout, rather than normal. We apparently are also getting large numbers of new registrations. But this area will vote against Obama and for McCain in large numbers.

I do not think Gallup has picked up this trend. They have been too busy adjusting their models according to the Obama campaign "model of the world". Obama just wants to get this whole stupid thing over with. But McCain and Palin look like they are having fun. Bush 1 and Dole sure did not look like they ever were having fun. As I keep repeating, if this were football John Madden would be telling us that "the McCain team sure looks relaxed out their Al. It is as if they are telling the world they cannot wait to take it to the Obamas". Al Michaels would then say, "yeah, John, sometimes being too much of a favorite can put too much pressure on the team, just ask the '69 Colts and the'08 Patriots".

One more day, then we can be done with this. Until next summer when the 2012 campaign begins.