A million boring years ago, back in February or March, I used to jokingly refer to Mitt Romney as the "White Obama". It was meant to be funny (ha, ha) and parody the foibles of each candidate and their supporters. On the one hand, each was young, tall, handsome, well spoken, a controversial Church member, and accused of being vapid. On the other hand, each was almost a stereotypical perfect candidate for a certain type of voter; Obama to the young as well as the black and Romney to the white male businessman.
A Yellow Dog Democrat is a term which goes back to the late 19th century. Although no longer in popular use, it referred to southern Democrats who would prefer voting for a "yellow dog" before they would vote for a Republican. I have some times called myself a Yellow Dog Republican (although I voted 3 times happily for Mayor Ed Koch). Even though both parties, in practice, are often very similar, the Republicans at least only want to take half your money, not three quarters of it.
Despite being a Yellow Dog Republican, this was the first Republican primary season in a few decades that I could not get interested in a particular candidate. I try to "optimize" when looking at candidates. I generally try to pick the person who has the best chance of winning the general election who I also like as a candidate. This year no candidate scored high on both fronts. Guliani was an Italian New York City liberal Republican, so he was going nowhere, although I liked him. Huckabee, who bizarrely now hosts the television show of choice for left wing Hollywood types, was the worst of all candidates. He was the most incoherent candidate economically who also was a demagogue on cultural issues.
I never was an enthusiastic McCain supporter. As I have stated before, I voted more against Obama than for McCain. McCain's Vietnam war record and foreign policy capabilities are his most impressive credentials. But he used to drive me crazy with his domestic policies. He voted against the "Bush tax cuts"; he supported the anti-free speech, pro-incumbent monstrosity of a bill, the "McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act". And he was against drilling before he was for it. I can go on, but I would never finish.
This left the White Obama. I kind of liked him, although I was already imagining the headlines in the NY Times ("Morman Cultist Candidate Fired Ohio Workers while CEO of Bain & Co."). I particularly liked his economic philosophy. But it was very clear early on he was not going to win. While he got the "free market" vote, Huckabee was able to get the cultural conservative vote. McCain got the "foreign policy" vote and Guliani lost his itinerary. McCain won because Huckabee cannibalized the cultural conservatives from Romney. McCain was every one's second choice.
The "Blaming Sarah Palin" contingent would like to conveniently forget the facts on the ground. While Clinton and Obama were capturing 120% of the media attention, the Republicans were in a complete funk. They looked at John McCain glumly and only one thought came to their mind, "Bob Dole". Except Dole had a coherent economic policy.
And then came Sarah Palin. Never, that means never, has a vice presidential candidate generated the kind of enthusiasm she did for her party. No point here in explaining this phenomenon, because it is beside the point. The Reagan style Conservative Republicans actually had an affirmative reason to vote. The party had not felt this excited literally since 1988. From Day 1 to Day 75 the vice presidential candidate drew unprecedented crowds even for a presidential candidate. The most widely watched debate was the vice presidential debate. Her convention speech drew the same audience size as did Obama's. The overwhelming percentage of media and political personalities who actually met her, came away impressed whether they agreed with her policies or not. Within 2 weeks of her nomination McCain went from 5-7 down to 2 up.
Then came the bail out bill and the market crisis. When I first heard McCain was rushing back to DC to focus on the bill, I thought it was to oppose it, as 95% of the voters expressing an opinion did. Maybe if the McCain jackals could have pointed this out to their candidate, they wouldn't have to now be pretending Palin didn't know Africa is a continent. Instead, his worst "reach across the isle" instincts came out. He actually tried to work with Frank, Reid and Pelosi to "craft a compromise". Was he kidding? They literally mocked him while Obama stayed coolly above the fray.
We do not know what would have happened had he chosen someone else. But the odds are low another would have turned this "Bob Dole" candidacy into one Conservatives would seriously care about. She may have cost McCain the "Christopher Buckley" vote, though I seriously doubt it. Those guys would have jumped ship for some other reason. I am still waiting for McCain to condemn his own staff, although his time to do that has already passed.
Here is a woman who starts the campaign with the New York Times actually pedaling the story that she faked her own pregnancy, and ends it with the McCain generated freakish fantasy of a shopaholic gone berserk because the Alaskan Governor couldn't figure out that Canada was part of the North American Free Trade Agreement. In between, she out drew the head of her ticket, and spoke before more voters than McCain did in his lifetime.
The good news is she will be back, while he and his campaign staff will not.
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2 comments:
I agree that the McCain campaign's scorn for Palin is totally shameful and mostly unfounded. However, if Palin truly aspires to be a successful national politician she needs to change one fundamental aspect of her approach to politics. The best way to describe what she needs to do is to look at what the truly great athletes of all time have done to become great. In essence, they resolve that "my greatest weakness will never be a weakness". The Michael Jordans, Jerry Rices and Tiger Woods of the world make sure that their weaknesses are still greater than their opponents' strengths.
Palin needs to hunker down, study hard and not re-emerge until she can hold her own with anyone on just about any subject. She has the rest down cold. She is as natural a politician as one can be. Her political skills are the equal of Bill Clinton's and that is high praise indeed.
So far, she seems to want to rely on the things that come easily to her. Instead, she has to work on those things that come hard.
Bruce is 100 percent correct and the analogy is apt as well. When I first saw Palin speak at a conference last Winter, she was giving advice to Hillary. The gist of the advice was do not complain but deal with whatever hand you are dealt and move on. You can see her struggling now trying to take her own advice. The level of attacks are so unprecedented, it is difficult for her to back off. But she will have to adjust. While Reagan's critics would never accept that he was extremely conversant on policy---and may never accept Palin either, she can never allow herself to be put off guard ever again if she wants to be a contender. In politics she has the most rare of gifts, true charisma and an affinity for a certain type of deep American values. People want to see her and cheer. But she needs to be conversant. If she wants it she can have it, but needs to put in the work.
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